The tropics remain fairly active as we approach the end of the first month of hurricane season. We’re currently tracking two potential systems. The first is in the western Caribbean and has a 30% chance for tropical development over the seven days.
The wave Invest AL 94 is moving to the west at 20 mph, and some development is possible over the northwestern Caribbean Sea or over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the next several days.
Another tropical wave, Invest AL 95, is located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive, and development (70%) of this system is anticipated. It is rare for conditions to be this favorable in the main development region this early in the season
A tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form this weekend several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands while the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph.
Models show a 40% possibility of a hurricane developing as the system moves through the Caribbean early next week.
